Tech industry calls midterm AI backlash an anti-Trump vote, not a vote against tech

In the US midterm elections on November 3, voters backed candidates and ballot measures that tighten the rules on AI and data centers. Redbud Consulting, a polling firm that tracked the ballot, counted 44 measures across 10 states that aimed to restrict data centers. According to Ars Technica, which reported Redbud's figures, 38 of them had passed at the time of reporting. Many were moratoriums or outright bans.

The industry's first public response came from Chamber of Progress, a tech trade group and policy coalition. It argued that the results do not show what they appear to show. Its argument matters because the next two years of rules, permits and tax policy will decide where the largest planned AI facilities get built, or whether they get built at all.

What voters decided

Analysts quoted by Ars Technica said the ballot measures will mostly not affect data centers already under construction or approved through 2027. Their main effect is on projects planned for 2028. Only one measure passed that allowed a data center to go ahead. Even that one, in a North Dakota city, requires developers to pay for independent reviews and hold public hearings before they propose or expand a project.

The governor races have the larger effect. Democrat Gina Hinojosa won in Texas. Axios had expected the state to account for more than 41 percent of the data center capacity added in 2028. Hinojosa plans to delay projects until the state passes laws on water, electricity, air and property rights. Bloomberg reported that about 13 gigawatts of data center capacity is now exposed. In a note cited by Bloomberg, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research wrote that Texas projects with "power, permits and steel keep going," but "those with power but no state environmental permits slip 12 to 18 months." Some projects may move to Louisiana or Georgia.

Democrats also won the governor races in Arizona, Georgia and Ohio. These are the next three largest states that had been courting data center developers. Axios projected that "nearly two-thirds of 2028 data center capacity" could face delays similar to those in Texas. Bloomberg estimated that half of US data centers are now more exposed to scrutiny. Libby Cantrill, head of public policy at PIMCO, said that even without statewide moratoria she expects "a lot more sand in the gears," with longer permitting times and more concessions from developers.

The industry's reading

Adam Kovacevich, a former Google executive who now runs Chamber of Progress, said in a statement that "the results offer little evidence of a voter mandate to crack down on AI or data centers." He said that Democratic candidates for governor who opposed data center bans won at a higher rate than those who supported bans. "Let's not confuse an anti-Trump wave with an anti-tech mandate," he said. "Voters wanted change on the economy, not a crackdown on innovation."

Some of the data supports part of this. NBC News exit polls show that voters ranked cost of living and government corruption above AI and data centers. The same polls, as cited by Alejandra Montoya-Boyer of The Leadership Conference's Center for Civil Rights and Technology, show that 3 in 4 voters oppose data centers. More than half said AI and data centers were a crucial or major factor in their vote for Congress.

Montoya-Boyer called the midterms "the first true AI election in the US." Brad Carson, co-founder of Americans for Responsible Innovation, told Axios that "voters just sent a clear message that they want rules for AI and data centers." Other analysts told Axios that voters seemed more concerned about efforts to block state AI regulation than about disputes over individual data centers.

The partisan framing has a further weakness. Ali Mortell, director of research at Blue Rose Research, told Time that "there's not a clear divide between Democratic voters and Republican voters" on data centers. "Opinion has soured with everyone." Blue Rose polling found that Americans would rather live near a prison, a methadone clinic or a nuclear power plant than near an AI data center. Mortell said concrete local effects, such as energy bills and pollution, mattered more to voters than abstract risks. She also said trust is low enough that voters do not believe reassurances from companies or politicians.

Where the buildout goes next

The change happens at a costly time for the industry. Ars Technica cites a recent Gartner estimate that the AI boom is "nearly $5 trillion short of paying for itself." Bloomberg expects tighter rules on tax incentives and on who pays for grid infrastructure and water, and those rules would raise developers' costs.

At the federal level, President Trump can still veto legislation. Time reported that Democrats would need substantial Republican support to override a veto. Some analysts say a Democratic majority could still block efforts to roll back Environmental Protection Agency protections in ways that would help data centers. Trump did not mention AI in his social media posts about the results on Wednesday.

Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, told the South China Morning Post that new limits on US computing capacity would keep AI token prices high. That would give China room to export cheaper inference services. In the most extreme case, he said, US opposition could push companies like Amazon or Google to build large data centers abroad.

Not every company is slowing down. According to SemiAnalysis, SpaceX raised its 2027 data center target from 10 gigawatts to about 13 gigawatts. Elon Musk, who controls SpaceX, had given almost half a billion dollars to Republican candidates by October, Quartz reported. He also faces a lawsuit alleging that gas turbines at his Colossus data center in Memphis are polluting the air.

What it means for work

For developers, site selectors and energy planners, the work on a data center project now includes public hearings, independent reviews, environmental permits and negotiations over who pays for water and grid upgrades, and these come earlier than before. Permitting and community relations are now on the critical path, so lawyers, local officials and utility regulators get more work and more leverage. Construction and operations jobs tied to 2028 projects in Texas, Arizona, Georgia and Ohio are now less certain, and some may move to other states or not happen at all. For people who live near planned sites, the vote moved part of the decision from state incentive programs to local ballots and hearings. Two questions remain open: how long the pauses last, and whether the industry treats the results as a political swing to wait out or as a demand to meet.